PEC Consultant - Development of a Microsimulation Model (Washington D.C., US, 20577)

Description

PEC Consultant - Development of a Microsimulation Model Organization: IDB - Inter-American Development Bank Location: Washington DC Application deadline: 2026-10-15 City: Washington DC Company: IDB Posting End Date: 10/15/2026 We improve lives The IDB Group is a community of diverse, versatile, and passionate people who come together on a journey to improve lives in Latin America and the Caribbean. Our people find purpose and do what they love in an inclusive, collaborative, agile, and rewarding environment. The Social Sector (SCL) is a multidisciplinary team committed to improving quality of life and addressing the main development challenges in Latin America and the Caribbean. The Sector works closely with countries in the region on the design and implementation of public policy solutions aimed at reducing poverty and strengthening health, education, labor, and social protection services. Its central objective is to promote a more productive region with equal opportunities and greater inclusion of the most vulnerable groups. About this position We are seeking to hire an Economist with research experience in poverty, inequality, and labor market issues, as well as expertise in econometric techniques and microsimulation methods, to collaborate with the Poverty Group of the Social Sector. The objective of this consultancy is to develop a microsimulation model that combines household survey microdata with macroeconomic and labor market indicators to project the evolution of poverty and income distribution, and to build counterfactual scenarios that assess the distributional impacts of economic shocks and policy changes. This includes preparing and processing the data, estimating the baseline model, programming the simulation and results modules, validating the model against observed years, and documenting and delivering the code in a fully reproducible manner. The consultancy also includes the development of an intuitive graphical user interface (GUI) that enables non-technical users to modify key assumptions, run scenarios within minutes, and visualize and export results. In addition, the consultant will provide a final training session to ensure the model can be used independently by end users. What you’ll do - Prepare the database. Consolidate the previously harmonized microdata from the most recent household surveys, along with the required macroeconomic and labor market series (aggregate and sectoral output, employment, informality, prices, public transfers, and remittances), documenting data sources, definitions, and harmonization criteria. - Design and estimate the baseline model. Design and estimate the household income generation model, including occupational choice models and labor income equations, while defining the assumptions for the treatment of non-labor income. - Program the simulation module. Develop the routines that translate macroeconomic projections and policy assumptions to the individual and household levels, including adjustments for population growth and demographic structure, labor status reallocation, labor income imputation and rescaling, and the updating of non-labor income. - Develop the results and scenario analysis module. Generate poverty, inequality, and income distribution indicators, growth incidence curves, and scenario comparisons, enabling both the projection of indicators and the construction of counterfactual scenarios to evaluate the distributional impacts of economic shocks and policy changes. - Validate the model. Assess predictive performance through backcasting exercises against observed years and sensitivity analyses of key assumptions and parameters, and propose any necessary methodological adjustments. - Scale the simulation, results, and scenario modules from one country to all countries with harmonized data - Develop a user-friendly graphical interface. Design and implement an intuitive interface that enables non-technical users, including country teams, government counterparts, and policymakers, to modify key assumptions through simple controls, run scenarios within minutes, and visualize and export results in ready-to-use tables and charts. - Document and deliver the code, and train the team. Deliver the code in a modular, reproducible, and well-documented format, accompanied by a methodological note and user manual, and provide training to IDB staff and counterparts to ensure autonomous use of the model. - Co-author the technical paper describing the model. In collaboration with the IDB team, prepare a technical document presenting the conceptual framework, estimation strategy, assumptions, and validation of the model, as well as illustrative applications for countries in the region, with a view toward publication as an IDB knowledge product. - Respond to ad hoc distributional analysis requests. Use the model to provide timely analyses of the distributional impacts of economic shocks and policy measures, supporting policy dialogue with countries and th

Sectors

Source

Source: iadb.org