[DYCLEX] DYnamical drivers, predictability and trends of compound CLimate EXtremes
Ente: European Commission
Scadenza: 2031-04-30
Importo max: 1.986.037 EUR
Paese: EU
Descrizione
Different climate extremes often interact and the resulting events, termed compound extremes, can lead to amplified socioeconomic impacts. Gaining a deep understanding of compound extremes is highly societally relevant and of key scientific importance for understanding climate risks. However, compound extremes are inherently multivariate and rare, which poses a daunting challenge to current scientific approaches.
My aim in DYCLEX is to provide a radically new perspective on the drivers, predictability and trends of compound climate extremes. I will ground this in a physical and statistical understanding of how the large-scale atmospheric circulation modulates compound extremes. My focus will be on the co-occurrence, at the same or at remote locations, of mid-latitude surface temperature, precipitation and wind extremes.
To achieve this ambitious aim, DYCLEX builds on key contributions from my own research and that of my research group, partly issued from my previous ERC project. Specifically, DYCLEX exploits my cutting-edge work on atmospheric dynamics, dynamical systems theory, statistical analyses and machine learning for the study of extreme events. I will use this interdisciplinary knowledge base to detect and quantify compound climate extremes and elucidate their link to different large-scale atmospheric circulation features. I will then leverage this to identify new predictability pathways for the compound extremes and to explain their long-term occurrence trends. The analysis framework I will develop is a flexible tool, applicable to a wide range of multivariate extremes in the Earth system and beyond.
DYCLEX is timely: Climate risks and extremes feature prominently in two Lighthouse Activities of the World Climate Research Programme, as well as in the EU’s strategy on adaptation to climate change. Moreover, the unconventional interdisciplinary toolkit that I plan to adopt offers novel opportunities, which should be rapidly and systematically exploited.
Settori: Compound climate extremes; large-scale atmospheric dynamics
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