[K01] Estimating the Seroincidence of Melioidosis, Typhoid Fever and Scrub Typhus from Cross-sectional Serosurveys
Ente: John E. Fogarty International Center for Advanced Study in the Health Sciences
Scadenza: 2027-04-30
Importo max: 180.252 EUR
Paese: US
Descrizione
Infectious diseases such as scrub typhus, melioidosis, and typhoid fever remain difficult to measure through routine surveillance because many infections are undiagnosed or lack laboratory confirmation. These bacterial pathogens produce dynamic antibody responses that rise and decay following infection, creating opportunities to estimate infection incidence from serologic data. All three infections are directly relevant to American health. Scrub typhus, caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi, has emerging molecular and serologic evidence of possible domestic transmission in North Carolina. Typhoid fever, caused by Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi, causes hundreds of travel-associated infections in the United States annually and remains a concern for travelers and deployed military personnel. Melioidosis, caused by Burkholderia pseudomallei, has caused localized outbreaks in the Gulf Coast region of the United States and is recognized as a pathogen of biodefense concern. The overall objective of this K01 is to develop and validate scalable seroepidemiologic methods to estimate population-level incidence from cross-sectional antibody data. This project leverages a collaboration with Mahidol University in Thailand, where the substantially higher incidence of acute febrile illnesses provides epidemiologic conditions, clinical cohorts, and longitudinal immune response data that are not available in the United States. The Specific Aims are Aim 1A) To model longitudinal antibody responses for scrub typhus and melioidosis and estimate peak antibody response, decay rate, and decay shape, and Aim 1B) To determine if antibody responses vary according to age; Aim 2) To develop an analytic approach for estimating the seroincidence of scrub typhus, melioidosis and typhoid fever from cross-sectional survey data; and Aim 3) To quantify the magnitude of selection bias induced by a school-based sample relative to a random population-based sample when estimating the incidence of scrub typhus, melioidosis, and typhoid fever. Data sources include existing longitudinal data from confirmed melioidosis, scrub typhus, and typhoid fever cases; high-dimensional simulated data; and prospective population-level serosurveys in Northeast Thailand. This mentored International Research Scientist Development Award will support Dr. Kristen Aiemjoy, Assistant Professor of Epidemiology at the University of California, Davis, in developing an independent research program focused on quantitative seroepidemiology and infectious disease surveillance. The training program will provide expertise in immunology, advanced analytic methods, and serologic data science through mentorship from investigators at Mahidol University and Stanford University with extensive expertise in tropical infectious diseases, diagnostics, and mathematical modeling. The sustained collaboration between UC Davis and Mahidol University will strengthen international research partnerships while developing surveillance meth
Istituzione: UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AT DAVIS
PI: Kristen Aiemjoy
Progetto: 5K01TW012177-05
Settori: John E. Fogarty International Center for Advanced Study in the Health Sciences
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