FLAMED: Fire modeLling And Mismatch mapping: integrating Ecology and human practices to Drive adaptive management
Ente: EC
Scadenza: 2029-04-30
Importo max: 226.421 EUR
Paese: EU
Descrizione
Fire has shaped ecosystems, landscapes, and human societies for millennia. Recent shifts in climate, vegetation, and land use have altered underlying fire regimes, which refer to the repeated patterns of fire frequency, size, and intensity at a given location. Nowhere is this more evident than in the European Union, where recent extreme wildfires have caused loss of life, threatened public health, and damaged economies. To respond effectively to such risks, first we must understand where and how fires should burn, and the extent to which human activities alter them. Yet knowledge on this remains fragmented, reflecting long-standing tension between ecological science, Earth System science, and human geography about the fundamental drivers of fire regimes.
This project will address these challenges by developing a simple but powerful modelling framework consisting of three global models of burnt area, fire size, and fire intensity which will be driven solely by climate, vegetation, soil, and topographic conditions. By deliberately excluding human influences, these models will act as counterfactual “world-without-humans” baselines, enabling us to ask: how would fire behave naturally, and how much do people alter it? Unlike existing models that rely heavily on short-term satellite records, this project will validate its approach using palaeo-fire charcoal data, providing rare out-of-sample tests of climate–vegetation–fire relationships.
Once validated, the models will be applied to Europe to map and quantify where and how human activity, such as land use, grazing, or deliberate fire use, amplifies or suppresses fire. They will be run under future climate and vegetation scenarios to identify regions at greatest risk of change. Working with the Pau Costa Foundation and other stakeholders, the project will co-develop adaptive, ecologically sound and future-proof fire management strategies, incorporating both global climate–vegetation drivers and local practices.
Settori: Horizon Europe Topics
Vai al bando originale
Registrati gratis su Bandolo per trovare bandi compatibili con la tua azienda.